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Trade Data Out Tomorrow, Authorities Cautious on Outlook

CHINA

China trade figures for May are out tomorrow. The market expects an improvement in conditions versus April, with export growth to rise to 8.0% YoY from 3.9%, while imports are also expected to rise to 2.8% from flat. The trade surplus is forecast to widen to $57.70bn from $51.12bn.

  • Stronger than expected South Korea export growth for May and a resumption of trade activity through Shanghai port, which is reportedly back to 95% of normal activity, are positive partial indicators.
  • Of course, the recovery in Shanghai trade activity may show up better in June figures.
  • Earlier comments from the China commerce minister suggest some caution though. The Deputy Commerce Minister stated that global demand is low, and that China faces pressure stabilizing trade.
  • Logistics and high transport costs are other headwinds. More work will be done to secure orders, but orders lost to date are manageable the ministry stated.
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