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CNY Fixing Slightly Firmer Than Expected

CNH

The USD/CNY fixing printed at 6.7079, versus a market estimate of 6.7084.

  • In USD/CNY terms today's fixing surprise is a modest -5pips, which contrasts with yesterday's +27pip outcome.
  • The 5-day rolling sum of the error term has slipped back to -28pips, from -12pips yesterday.
  • USD/JPY has softened a little after reaching 136.70 in recent sessions, last tracking below 135.90. This may have helped drive a fixing outcome closer to market estimates, albeit at the margin.
  • As we noted yesterday, there has been some correlation between higher USD/JPY levels and weaker than expected CNY fixings in recent months.
  • USD/CNH is drifting a little lower, back sub 6.7100, after an earlier high of just above 6.7180.
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