Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
In quick order USD/CNH has broken through 6.8200, above earlier week to date highs from Monday, when the surprise MLF cut was delivered, and July activity prints were weaker than expected. The catalyst for the move appears to be the slightly weaker than expected CNY fixing, although the miss was fairly modest. The pair touched a high just above 6.8270, we are now back to 6.8250/60. The next focus point will the mid May YTD highs of 6.8380, Interestingly, the vol space remains relatively calm for now. To be sure, we are up off recent lows, but remain well below previous highs. This disconnect between spot and 1 month implied vol levels has been apparent for a number of months. Sentiment may change if we break to fresh YTD highs for the year on a spot basis.
Fig 1: USD/CNH & 1 Month Implied Vols
Source: MNI/Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.