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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CNH
The USD/CNY fix printed at 6.8536, versus a market estimate of 6.8656.
- Today's fix was a large downside surprise in USD/CNY terms of -120pips. We have to go back to the start of February 2020 to see a larger downside surprise, see the chart below. The rolling 5-day sum of the error term has slumped back to -151 pips.
- Today's fixing outcome, coupled with the overnight warning to onshore banks against shorting the yuan, is a clear shot across the bow to short CNH positions.
- USD/CNH has fallen back below 6.8600 post the fix, so through the overnight low. We have stabilised somewhat around 6.8550. The next downside target could be 6.8400, lows from the previous session.
Fig 1: USD/CNY Fixing Relative To Market Expectations (USD/CNY terms)
Source: MNI/Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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