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USD/CNH Supported Sub 6.9100, Official PMIs On Tap Today

CNH

For now, USD/CNH dips sub 6.9100 are being supported. The post Asia close low in the pair was just under 6.9040, (so under the post fixing low yesterday), but the rebound took us close to 6.9300 overnight. We now sit at 6.9235/40. On tap today is the official PMI prints for August.

  • The general sense around the PMI prints is risks rest to the downside. The manufacturing PMI is expected to print at 49.2 (versus 49.0 in July), while non-manufacturing is expected to come in at 52.3 from 53.8 last month. See this link for more details.
  • Onshore bond yields have rolled back over, with the 2yr back to 2.05%, versus recent highs above 2.10%. A fresh break lower (sub 2.00%), would take us to levels last seen in early 2020.
  • This is helping drive fresh highs in the US-China 2yr government bond yield spread. We are now at +139bps, versus +70/75bps at the start of August.
  • China Premier Li Keqiang stated that stimulus measures announced this year are more forceful compared to 2020. These comments come after last week's 19 point stimulus plan was announced, which largely focuses on the infrastructure sector.
  • Note also the 16th of October is the date set for the start of the leadership congress, where President Xi Jinping is expected to be sworn in for a third term.
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