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USD Finds Some Support, Australian Q3 CPI Due Out Shortly

FOREX

The USD is a touch higher in early trade this morning. The BBDXY back close to 1331. Lower US equity futures, particularly in the tech space after disappointing earning updates, is helping the USD at the margin. Coming up shortly is the main event risk for the session, with Australian Q3 CPI due.

  • AUD/USD tracked to a low of 0.6375, but we are now back to 0.6380. AU yields are lower, in line with offshore moves overnight, but the AU-US 10yr spread is back to recent wides -16bps, while the 2yr spread is -105bps. The market expects Q3 CPI to be 1.6% q/q, taking the y/y pace to 7.0% from 6.1% in Q2. The trimmed mean if forecast to rise 1.5% q/q, 5.5% y/y.
  • NZD/USD is back to 0.5740, down slightly on late NY highs near 0.5760. The ANZ activity outlook for October slipped to -2.5, from -1.8 last month, while confidence fell to -42.7 from 36.7. Inflation expectations edged up to 6.13% from 5.98%.
  • GBP/USD is off around 0.2% from NY closing levels, last at 1.1450. The Times reported new Prime Minister Sunak is considering a delay to next week's fiscal statement.
  • EUR/USD is down slightly to sub 0.9960. Yen is outperforming slightly due to lower US equity futures. USD/JPY is a touch higher at 148.00.
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