USD Firms, But CNH Outperforms As China Markets Re-Open

USD/Asia pairs are mostly higher (except for USD/CNH) as broader market risk aversion, post the weekend's Hamas attack on Israel, has boosted safe have related currencies. Regional equity markets are lower, but losses are less than 1% at this stage. Tomorrow we have Philippines trade figure in an otherwise light data day. We are awaiting China aggregate/new loan figures, which should be out at some stage this week.

• China markets returned from the Golden Week holiday period today. The CNY fixing was close to levels that prevailed prior to the holiday period, while onshore equities have struggled for positive traction. Anecdotes around housing sentiment remain weak, and while holiday spending surged versus last year's levels, it was below government estimates. Still, USD/CNH is back sub 7.3000 this afternoon. Earlier highs were close to 7.3200.
• USD/IDR has hit fresh highs in the first part of dealing today. The pair was last near 15680, which is fresh highs back to late 2022. The pair got to 15763 late last year, which bulls in the pair may target on the continued trend move higher. The combination of global equity risk aversion and still elevated US real yields is a poor one for IDR. 5yr CDS is near 100bps, which is fresh multi-month highs.
• Rupee is little changed from Friday's closing levels in early trade. As of yet there has been no spillover from the escalating tensions in the Middle East which have seen the greenback firm and Oil prices rise ~4% today. USD/INR sits at 82.23/24, the pair has consolidated above 83 in a narrow range in recent dealing.
• USD/THB is back above 37.00 in the first part of Monday trade. The pair last near 37.09. This is below earlier October highs near 37.24, but dips in the pair sub 37.00 have generally been supported in recent dealings. Apparent friction between the government and monetary authorities remains a source of market concern. A number of former BoT Governors have expressed concern over the new Government's cash hand out scheme. Local equities remain under pressure, which will be impacting THB to some degree.
• The Ringgit has opened dealing on Monday softer as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East weigh on risk sentiment. Broader USD trends are dominated as safe havens strengthen this morning. USD/MYR is up ~0.3%, last printing at 4.7275.
• The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) is little changed in early dealing on Monday and remains well within recent ranges. The measure sits ~0.5% below the top of the band. USD/SGD is a touch firmer in early dealing on Monday, the pair sits ~0.1% above opening levels last printing at $1.3660/65. The fallout from geopolitical tensions in Israel has seen the greenback firm on Monday.
• USD/PHP has rebounded firmly in the first part of trade today. The pair is back to 56.85. We closed at the end of last week at 56.625. Today's loss is -0.450 in PHP terms, with the currency one of the weakest performers in the region so far today. The USD and safe haven currencies are outperforming amid broader risk off tone in markets. For PHP, a focus point on the fallout of the Hamas attack on Israel will be on the oil price impact, given it remains a stronger net oil importer.