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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
USD
US data momentum is still a headwind for the USD ahead of tonight's non-farm payrolls report.
- The Citi US economic activity surprise index continues to trend lower, see the chart below. We are now at the lowest levels since September last year. The wedge with the equivalent surprise index for the EU area continues to grow.
- To be sure, there have been some US data beats this past week. Most notably the much stronger than expected ISM headline number. The regional Fed surveys were suggesting a weaker outcome or at least a downtick from the previous month's print for the ISM survey.
- Still, yield differentials on a 2yr basis for the USD have slipped a further 10bps against the EUR and around the same amount against GBP over the past week. We are back close to recent highs against JPY though. These trends are still correlating reasonably well with relative FX performance for the majors.
Fig 1: Citi US EASI Index Still Trending Lower
Source: Citi, MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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