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USD Gains, Rates and Equities WEaker Ahead May Employ Data

US TSYS SUMMARY
Rates and equities traded weaker while USD enjoyed strong gains (DXY topped 90.55) in the aftermath of stronger than expected ADP private employ data (+978K vs. +650 exp) Thu. Quiet sideways trade for rates and equities since before noon -- relative quiet ahead Fri's headline May employ data: mean estimate has been gaining: NFP +674k vs. +266k last month.
  • Signal For Nonfarms Remains Unclear: -88K revision to April's figure did little to take the sheen off a strong beat in May's ADP payrolls reading (+978k jobs vs +650k survey, and above the highest estimate of +900k).
  • That said, the large discrepancy between ADP and the BLS nonfarms figure for April last month should be kept in mind, for another potential overestimation by the ADP's model for May. But perhaps we'll see some modest adjustments higher in the surveys for tomorrow's NFP (currently +655k, with BBG whisper.
  • Eurodollar option trade consistently bearish on the day, hedging rate hikes via puts in 2- and 3Y midcurves.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 1.4bps at 0.1585%, 5-Yr is up 4.8bps at 0.8413%, 10-Yr is up 3.6bps at 1.6233%, and 30-Yr is up 2.3bps at 2.2946%.
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