March 15, 2023 05:05 GMT
USD/IDR Close To Recent Lows, Bond Inflows Offsetting Equity Underperformance
USD/IDR couldn't sustain the earlier dip sub 15350. The pair last tracking near 15370, around 0.10% sub yesterday's closing levels. On the downside, the 20-day EMA come in at 15304, while the simple 100-day MA is around 15420. Recall earlier in the month authorities intervened back on March 8th when we were above 15460.
- Feb trade figures were better than expected from a trade surplus standpoint (+$5.48bn, versus a revised $3.88bn surplus prior), with export growth close to expectations (+4.51% y/y, 4.60% forecast), while imports were much weaker (-4.32% y/y, against the 9.06% forecast). See this link for more details.
- Still, it remains to be seen how much of this surplus gets parked with the BI at its new deposit facility.
- Elsewhere, local equities are underperforming broader gains elsewhere, with the JCI close to flat. The index is close to the 6642 level, moves sub 6600 have been buying opportunities over the past 12 months. Equity outflows have been evident, but we remain only modestly down week to date (-$84.7mn).
- Bond flows are proving more resilient, with strong foreign demand at yesterday's auction (43% of total bonds sold). Foreign holdings have been trending lower since early Feb (when US yields started pivoting higher). Signs of a less hawkish Fed backdrop may be benefiting appetite for INDOGBs.