USD/IDR Edges Lower On Trade Surplus Beat, But Still Wedged Between Key EMAs

USD/IDR spot has edged back to the 15000 level in latest dealings. We have moved off intra-day highs of 15009 to 15000 post a better than expected trade surplus for June. It printed at $3460mn, versus $1162mn expected and $430mn prior. This was largely due to a slump in imports (-18.35% y/y, -4.20% forecast), with export growth also faltering to -21.18% y/y (-17.80% forecast and 0.93% prior).

• USD/IDR is back above the 50-day EMA (around 14978), but still sub the 20-day at this stage (~15009).
• Lows from early last Friday came in the 14915/20 region. Like elsewhere in the region, USD/IDR is seeing some retracement higher, as broader USD sentiment stabilizes after Friday's yield rebound.
• Local equities continue to outperform, the JCI near 6900 and above its simple 200-day MA. Equity flows were positive last week, +$78.9mn, while bond inflows picked up ($117.7mn) post the US CPI data but remain negative for July to date.
• Locally, the authorities stated they have no plans to change the quota that domestic producers of palm oil must abide by in terms of domestic and offshore sales (currently they can only ship palm oil four times the amount that they sell domestically).