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USD/IDR Edging Towards November Highs On Cross Asset Headwinds

IDR

USD/IDR has pushed back into the upper end of recent ranges. We currently sit at 15673, +0.30% higher for the session. Highs in the pair from November came in around the 15750 level. Support still appears evident sub 15400, while the simple 50-day MA is just under 15570.

  • Cross asset signals have been a headwind for IDR over recent sessions, with palm oil falling over 6% yesterday, although we have recouped around half these losses so far today. Still, the Citi Indonesia terms of trade proxy is off its recent highs.
  • Onshore equities are higher today (JCI +0.68%), but offshore outflows persist. Now at -$830.3mn for the month to date, second largest in the region behind South Korea.
  • A positive offset is coming from rising inflows into local bonds from offshore investors. Foreign holdings are back to early September levels. Still, this is not enough of a positive to outweigh the headwinds above.
  • For the FX, the recent rebound in UST real yields is a likely constraint and comes ahead of tonight's US CPI print. We are back to +133bps, up from recent lows at +116bps.
  • Locally, trade figures are out this Thursday.
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