USD/IDR Hits Fresh YTD Highs

USD/IDR has hit fresh highs in the first part of dealing today. The pair was last near 15680, which is fresh highs back to late 2022. The pair got to 15763 late last year, which bulls in the pair may target on the continued trend move higher. Recent lows have been in the 15565/75 region, while the 20-day EMA sits back at 15482.

• Earlier consumer confidence data showed sentiment easing back to 121.70, close to YTD lows for the index, but still well above 2020/21 lows.
• The focus domestically may rest with the need for easier policy settings, although financial stability concerns, particularly from an IDR standpoint present a headwind to such views. On Friday BI Governor stated that the central bank will keep rates steady in the near term. Note the next BI policy meeting is next Thursday.
• The local data calendar is quiet for the rest of the week.
• The combination of global equity risk aversion and still elevated US real yields is a poor one for IDR. 5yr CDS is near 100bps, which is fresh multi-month highs.
• Portfolio outflows were more modest in the first week of October, but broader macro catalysts for a turnaround aren't evident yet.