USD/IDR Rebounds From Fresh YTD Low, Trade Figures Out today, BI Tomorrow

USD/IDR is back close to 14760 today, around 0.40% weaker in IDR terms versus closing levels from the end of last week. Earlier in the session we spiked to 14780. Current levels compare with lows just under 14650 from the start of Friday's session at the end of last week. These levels were fresh lows going back to mid August last year.

• IDR still remains comfortably the best performer in Asian FX month to date, +1.60%, while the USD/IDR technical set up still looks bearish. However, if we see further upside in the pair, the 14830/40 region, which we broke down through early last week is likely to be eyed (this previously marked the YTD low for the pair).
• Outside of the correction higher in US yields, the broader risk backdrop still appears supportive for IDR, with 5yr CDS back to +87bps from a late March high of +120bps. Last week delivered positive inflows into local equity and bond markets. Palm oil prices have faltered though, back sub MYR 4000.
• On the data front we have March trade figures due today. The trade surplus is forecast at $4.25bn, prior was $5.48bn. Export growth is expected to contract in y/y terms though. Tomorrow delivers the BI outcomes, with rates expected to be held steady at 5.75%.