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USD/IDR To Fresh Multi Month Highs

IDR

USD/IDR sits a touch below session highs, last at 15365. We have moved beyond mid August highs, with mid-March highs at 15450 the next potential upside target. The 20-day EMA continues to trend higher, last around the 15280 level.

  • The still firmer US yield backdrop, ahead of the upcoming CPI print, is presenting a headwind. As we noted earlier in the week, seasonality for IDR is quite negative in September, which may be leaving the authorities reluctant to curb rupiah weakness at this stage.
  • In the commodity space, crude palm oil is trending lower, working against higher energy prices elsewhere in the commodity space.
  • Local equities are off earlier September highs, the JCI tracking back towards 6900. Offshore investors sold local equities yesterday (-$36.7mn), but net inflows are still positive week to date.
  • Outflows from local bonds were chunky at the start of the week -$216.4mn. In Q3 to date we have seen modest outflows in this space. We tend to need to see inflows, at least historically, to generate a positive IDR backdrop.
  • Note on Friday, we have August trade data.
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