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USD Index Continues Ascent, Prints Fresh 2023 Highs

FOREX
  • The USD index has risen a further 0.35% on Monday, continuing its impressive upward trend and reaching fresh 2023 highs in the process alongside the bear steepening move along the treasuries curve which saw the 10 year yield rise 10bps to 4.53%.
  • The key underperformer across G10 was the Euro, declining 0.6% and trading below the 1.06 handle for the first time since March 16. The recent clearance of 1.0632, the Sep 14 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.0551 next, the Mar 16 low.
  • Elsewhere, USDJPY continues to grind higher following Bank of Japan Governor Ueda sticking to a dovish script in his post-meeting address last Friday. The pair has narrowed in on 149.00 and market participants will be wary of any comments from the MoF as we make headway towards 150,00, a point of reference for some sell-side institutions regarding the potential for intervention.
  • Interestingly, Ueda spoke again today and said it is important for foreign exchange rates to move stably reflecting economic and financial fundamentals.
  • The Swedish Krona remains the G10 outperformer, defying weakness seen elsewhere amid the broad USD strength. As noted throughout the day, drivers for the SEK strength are the SBB cash injection from the weekend and the beginning of Riksbank FX hedging today.
  • In emerging markets, the risk sensitive HUF was a notable laggard alongside the majority of Latin American currencies. With positioning likely playing a key part in today’s unwind, the Mexican Peso (-1.17%) and the Colombian peso (-1.81%) are the worst performers.
  • A fairly light docket on Tuesday sees US consumer confidence and new home sales data cross. Later in the week, Eurozone CPI figures will be in focus.
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