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USD Index Recovers Into Positive Territory As Thanksgiving Approaches

FOREX
  • The greenback has traded on a firmer note across US hours, with the USD index erasing its earlier declines and extending into positive territory ahead of the FOMC minutes. While no surprises within the minutes, similarly positive price action for the greenback prevailed in the direct aftermath. This was mainly reflective of the grinding downward pressure on major equity indices throughout the session amid potential profit taking dynamics in play, especially as we approach the Thanksgiving Holiday in the US.
  • The most notable uptick has been for USDJPY, which makes sense given its more volatile nature in recent sessions and its impressive extension lower below 150.00 from last week. After reaching a low of 147.15, the pair now trades around 148.35 as we approach the APAC crossover, having traded as high as 148.60 after the minutes release.
  • Overall, support at 149.16 (50-day EMA), has been cleared. This strengthens a short-term bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper correction, towards 146.00, a trendline support drawn from the Mar 24 low.
  • EURUSD has echoed this sentiment, however the moves have been much more measured with 1.0900 limiting the downside and the pair consolidating around 1.0915 at typing.
  • RBA Governor Bullock is due to speak overnight about the economic outlook and monetary policy at the Australian Business Economists Annual Dinner. AUDUSD has kept a fairly narrow range on Tuesday and trades close to unchanged at 0.6555. Importantly, the latest rally has resulted in a clear break of former resistance at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. The breach is an important short-term bullish development and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term towards 0.6616 next, the Oct 8 high.
  • Elsewhere on Wednesday, markets will await the UK’s Autumn Forecast Statement, and in the US, initial jobless claims, durable goods and revised UMich sentiment data are all scheduled.
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