USD/JPY Pushes Above 149.00, But Little Follow Through, BoJ Minutes Out Today

Late in Asia Pac trade on Tuesday USD/JPY got close 149.20, before pulling back. Dips towards 148.75 were supported, but we didn't make fresh highs post this move. We finished up in NY trade at 149.05/10, a yen loss of 0.13%, a modest outperformance compared to the +0.32% rise in the BBDXY for the session.

• For USD/JPY technicals, we have 149.71, the Oct 24 2022 high, while focus is also on 150.00, likely round figure resistance (and a potential intervention trigger point). On the downside, the 20-daqy EMA is back at 147.29.
• Focus remains on intervention risks, with FinMin Suzuki repeating recent rhetoric yesterday.
• The 1 week risk reversals sits above recent pre-BOJ lows, last near -0.92. 1 week implied vol is just under 8%, comfortably off recent highs above 11%.
• US nominal yields were relatively steady in Tuesday trade, but the real 10yr yield climbed to fresh highs (2.23%). Weakness in US equities likely aided yen against higher beta plays like AUD.
• Today we have the BoJ minutes from the July policy meeting. On the data front, the final July readings for the leading and coincident indices are on tap. The final August machine tool order print is also out.