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Free AccessUSD/JPY Stays Heavy Ahead With Japan's CPI Eyed
USD/JPY finished on the back foot Thursday, as both sides of the pair underperformed amid reduced demand for safe haven currencies (safe for CHF, which was boosted by domestic dynamics). The pair touched its worst levels since Apr 27 amid softer U.S. Tsy yields.
- The risk reversal skew has shifted further towards greenback puts on Thursday, with USD/JPY 1-month 25 delta risk reversal easing to its lowest point since mid-March.
- Spot USD/JPY trades at Y127.73, a touch lower on the day. A fall through May 19/Apr 27 lows of Y127.03/126.95 would signal potential for an extension towards the 50-EMA at Y125.77. Bulls need a rebound above May 12 high of Y130.05 before taking aim at May 9 high of Y131.35.
- Japan's core CPI is expected to have picked up to +2.0% Y/Y in April from +0.8% prior, meeting the BoJ's target. However, it is unlikely to prompt the central bank to abandon its strategy of powerful monetary easing, as price pressures seem underpinned by statistical distortions and supply-side factors rather than wage dynamics.
- Next week's data highlights include flash Jibun Bank PMIs (Tuesday) & Tokyo CPI (Friday).
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.