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USD/KRW Holding Above 1360, BoK On Hold Today, Outlook In Focus

KRW

1 month USD/KRW probed higher post the Asia close on Wednesday, but didn't breach the 1366 level. We finished up near 1364.5, a won loss of 0.17%, the fourth straight decline. Note onshore spot finished up at 1362.85 yesterday.

  • The 1 month NDF is above all key EMAs. The 20-day is nearby at 1361.6, the 50-day around 1356.65. A break above 1366 could see a move 1370 targeted.
  • Broader USD gains were evident (BBDXY +0.25%) as front end yields rose through Wednesday's session. The FOMC mins reiterated recent Fed speak around caution on the inflation outlook, while some members appeared to state rate hikes could resume if conditions warranted a shift.
  • The yield move weighed on broader equity sentiment, although US futures have opened positively this morning led by the tech side (Nasdaq futures +0.37%), post Nvidia results. This may aid KRW and local equity sentiment at the margins in the first part of trade today.
  • To recap, the Kospi was around flat yesterday, but we had $206.4mn in offshore inflows.
  • The local focus today will be on the BoK decision. No change is expected but focus will be on the central bank's easing bias, which we expect is going to be pushed back further into H2.
  • See our preview here:
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