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USD On Back Foot Ahead Of US CPI

LATAM
  • Consensus has headline US CPI inflation rising +1.1% M/M in June after an equally rampant +1.0% M/M in May. Core inflation is seen dipping to a ‘large’ +0.5% M/M (av. 0.54% M/M) after surprisingly accelerating from 0.57% to 0.63% in May, registering the strongest print since Jun’21.
  • The report comes with a 75bp hike on Jul 27 seen as locked in and would likely require a very large surprise to change this.
  • However, as in the approach to last week’s strong payrolls, large market moves have opened sizeable two-sided risk to expectations for both the Sep FOMC and meetings further out.
  • The Bloomberg Dollar Index trades slightly weaker on Wednesday as we approach the data. This follows another failed attempt to break parity in EURUSD and subsequent bounce for the pair during the European session.
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