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USD/PHP Back To 56.00 Ahead Of The BSP Later

PHP

Spot USD/PHP tracks at 56.00 as the BSP decision comes into view. Post US CPI highs in the pair came in around 56.33. On the downside recent dips sub 56.00 haven't proven sustainable. Note the 200-day EMA is near 55.91. The simple 200-day MA sits closer to current spot levels, near 55.98.

  • We don't expect the BSP to shift policy rates or meaningful change their outlook around staying restrictive long enough to ensure inflation returns to target.
  • A surprise dovish pivot may undermine PHP (much like we saw in THB post the recent BOT decision). This may feed into BSP thinking as well, see our full preview here.
  • Elsewhere local equities remain on the front foot, while offshore investors continue to purchases local equities, albeit modestly.
  • We had Dec remittances data earlier, we rose to 3.8% y/y. The level of cash remittances climbed to over $3.2bn. The data calendar is fairly light between now and the end of the month, post the BSP decision later.
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