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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
PHP
USD/PHP sits near 56.35 in recent dealings, around 0.3% stronger in PHP terms. Outside of a modest CNH gain, PHP is the only Asian currency firmer today in spot terms. However, this largely looks to reflect catch up to NDF strength post yesterday's onshore close (1 month NDF is little changed today, last at 56.36).
- Like elsewhere in South East Asia (SEA) FX, USD/PHP is oversold based off RSI (14) but continues to ride the weaker USD wave, as Fed easing expectations remain firm. There doesn't appear much on the charts to 56.00 round figure support. The 200-day EMA is back near 57.18 on the topside.
- USD/PHP has been somewhat of a laggard though compared to other SEA FX. The chart below plots normalized levels for SEA USD/PHP pairs, with the start of the year indexed to 100. USD/PHP (the white line) has moved broadly with IDR and THB, albeit trailing gains in recent weeks at the margin. MYR's surge remains the standout in SEA.
- A persistent trade deficit is one feature of the Philippines that has potentially held back relative performance
- Still, cross asset signals are mostly positive for PHP. Local equities aren't too far off recent highs, while the drop in oil prices is a terms of trade positive all else equal.
- The local data calendar is reasonably quiet until next week when budget balance and bank lending figures are. August CPI prints on Sep 5.
Fig 1: SEA FX Performance In 2024 To Date
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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