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USD/PHP Firms, But 20-day EMA Threatening To Break Down Through 200-day EMA

PHP

Philippine markets have returned today. The early impetus has been for USD/PHP to gravitate higher relative to last Friday closing levels (55.395), last near 55.49 (+0.17%). This keeps us comfortably within recent ranges. Note Friday lows were at 55.28, which was a level last seen in early August of this year.

  • Recent highs rest at 55.61, while the 20-day EMA sits back near 55.87, which is threatening to fall through the 200-day EMA (55.90).
  • The Philippines Finance Secretary Diokno said over the weekend that the likely USD/PHP range was 53-57 over the medium term. Structural inflows and ample FX reserves support this backdrop (see this BBG link).
  • On the data side, we have budget balance data for Oct tomorrow, while on Thursday Oct bank lending figures are out.
  • Local equities are tracking higher, the PCOMP last above 6300, fresh highs back to mid October.
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