USD/PHP Off Recent Highs, But Export Slump Delaying Improvement In Trade Balance

USD/PHP currently tracks close to 56.00/05, down -0.15% from yesterday's closing levels (56.12). This is line with a softer tone more broadly, although PHP's beta is fairly low to such moves. Moves above the 200-day MA, around 56.13, continue to draw selling interest. Recent lows came in around 55.85, earlier in June. We haven't seen any adverse FX reaction to the RRR cut announced late yesterday. BSP stressed the move didn't shift the monetary stance.

• Onshore equities are trying to stay in positive territory, but the index is largely tracking sideways at this stage. Offshore equity flows have been modestly negative this past week.
• Earlier, Apr trade figures showed much weaker than expected export and import growth. Export growth fell to -20.2% y/y (-9.0% forecast), lows back mid 2020. Import growth was -17.7% y/y, also back to H2 2020 lows.
• Weakness in exports largely reflected softer electronic exports, consistent with trends elsewhere in the region.
• The trade deficit was slightly better than expected, printing at -$4.531bn. We are up from 2022 lows on this metric, but the improvement is stop-start, as weaker export growth offsets a lower energy bill.
• The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.5% for Apr from 4.7%, but this largely reflected lower participation rates.