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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
PHP
Early impetus for USD/PHP is to the topside. We quickly pushed towards 56.40, and sit just below this level currently and this compares with closing levels of 56.225 yesterday. We are comfortably above the simple 200-day MA (around 56.10/11), with dips sub this level and just below 56.00 drawing support in recent sessions.
- The pair is now back to levels from early December last year. Highs from July last year near 56.50 may also some resistance, beyond that lies the 57.00 figure level.
- There doesn't seem to be a sharp pushback from the authorities around recent FX weakness. March BoP data still showed a decent surplus, while BSP FX reserves have mostly been trending higher since troughing in September last year.
- FX intervention/jawboning on the FX rate seem the main risks to the current uptrend for USD/PHP. The recent low in USD/PHP coincided with the trough in US real yields, see the chart below.
Fig 1: USD/PHP Versus US Real 10yr Yield
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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