Free Trial

USD Recoups Some Lost Ground

ASIA FX

The USD is firmer against Asia FX, with the continued moved higher in US cash Tsy yields aiding broader USD sentiment, while some weaker than expected data outcomes have weighed at the margin as well. Dollar gains have been fairly uniform. Singapore PMIs are still to come today. Tomorrow, we get the China Caixin services PMI, the Indian services PMI and Singapore retail sales.

  • USD/CNH sits close to session highs currently, last near 6.9100. We started the day close to 6.8700, now having lost a little over 0.40% in CNH terms (after yesterday's +1% gain). Onshore equities are down a touch at this stage.
  • 1 month USD/KRW is up around 0.60% to 1311/12 for the session. IP growth was weaker than expected in y/y terms, while semiconductor inventories continued to climb, suggesting on-going headwinds for a key part of the export outlook. Other parts of IP were firmer, although data on domestic demand showed a further slowdown consumption spending. The Kospi has rallied, but is largely reflecting catch up from yesterday, when markets were shut.
  • USD/THB has mostly stayed on the front foot today, albeit finding selling interest above 34.90. We last tracked at 34.80/85, around 0.15% weaker in baht terms for the session. This follows yesterday's strong 1.6% gain. We are somewhat wedged between the 100-day EMA (34.69) and the 200-day EMA (close to 34.90). We remain comfortably below recent highs near 35.40. Onshore equities are still lagging the baht rebound, while offshore investors remain net sellers of local equities.
  • USD/IDR is trying to move above the 100-day EMA (15268), with spot last at 15270, around +0.25% above yesterday's closing level. We are also moving above the simple 50-day MA (15258.5). The local data calendar remains quiet until next week. BI Governor Warjiyo was once again on the wires stating that current policy levels will be enough to bring Indonesia inflation back to target. He also added the Fed could stay hiking interest rates until mid year, which would pressure other currencies (including IDR) against the USD. Still, BI stands ready to intervene to support the local currency. BI will also offer the following rates for export FX deposits (5.2% for 6 months, 4.92% for 3 and 4.64% for 1 month).
  • INR is softer this morning, broad based USD/Asia strength driven by higher US Treasury Yields is weighing on the Rupee. We remain comfortably within recent ranges though. USD/INR was marginally softer yesterday, finishing dealing ~0.2% lower. The pair briefly dealt below its 20-Day EMA (82.57), however we sit a touch above that level this morning. Bulls still look to target a break of 83.00. Bears target 2023 lows at 80.89.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.