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USD/RUB BGN Faces Potential Debt Headwinds on 4 April; 3x6 FRA's Shift Towards Future Cuts

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB BGN resumed its move lower yesterday on the back of USD weakness and a cautious convergence in Istanbul negotiations, although leaders have downplayed concrete progress towards agreements somewhat.
  • The cross closed the 28 Feb breakout gap higher and has fallen -18.48% this week - with an eye on 80.00 as the next downside target.
  • However, larger debt payments due on 4 April represent a significant hurdle to more RUB strength if Russia struggles to may the payment in foreign currency.
  • Stocks gained yesterday with the MOEX rising +4.35% and RTS $ Index up +7.67%. Oil markets have plummeted -5.48% this morning on signs that Biden will release 180m bbls of US reserves ahead of today’s OPEC+ meeting.
  • 3x6 FRA-Mosprime spreads have also dipped into negative territory, signalling -3.74% in cuts expected over a 6m horizon.
  • 3x6 FRA-Mosp Spreads


MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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