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USD/RUB Eyes 73.00, Supported By Oil Gains & Hawkish CBR

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades slightly higher at the open after mounting a sustained move lower in yesterday's session to retest the 01 June lows at 73.09.
  • Brent managed to hold onto gains above $71/bbl in yesterday's session with traders becoming more bullish on the demand outlook – adding support to RUB.
  • Progress on the bill banning 'extremist' organisations is yet another blow for Navalny's organization ahead of State Duma elections in September, which United Russia is increasingly tightening its grip on.
  • Services PMI data surprised to the upside this morning, adding weight to CBR assertions of strong internal demand driving price pressures.
  • Markets will begin to dial into CBR communications in the lead-up to next Friday's rate-setting meeting,
  • with markets expecting a continuation in its currently hawkish trajectory, given sticky inflation forecasts in the 5-6% bracket.
  • 3x6FRA-Mosprime spreads highlighting +88bp priced into markets on a 3-6m horizon, lifting +10bp tis morning.
  • Intraday Sup1: 73.091, Sup2: 72.9534, Res1: 73.4212, Res2: 73.5483
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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