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USD/RUB Holds a Narrow Range as Domestic Tax Period Winds Down

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB continues to see muted price action around the 75.00 handle as the local tax period comes to an end.
  • The cross has broadly ignored recent USD strength, kept firm by a hawkish CBR and unwinding tensions with Ukraine.
  • Tentative strength in oil markets post-OPEC+ JMMC should be RUB supportive, however, risks to the near-term outlook remain tilted lower for oil.
  • USD/RUB still remains relatively undervalued vs pre-Ukraine/US tensions levels (~73.00-74.00), but needs to see a decisive close below the 100dma at 74.6967 & 74.6370 support to unlock the next downleg.
  • Today's FOMC will be the core focus of the day with the Fed expected to keep policy setting stable and accommodative to support the brewing recovery, while viewing the recent inflationary uptick as transient.
  • Intraday Sup1: 74.8347, Sup2: 74.6370, Res1: 75.3055, Res2: 75.5649
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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