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  • USD/RUB trades -0.52% lower this morning, brushing off early BBDXY upside to focus on firmer oil and gas prices (+0.88% & +5.34% respectively).
  • The cross fell -1.03% last week, spurred on by higher oil prices and a larger than expected hike from the CBR policy rollercoaster at +75bp vs a split consensus of +25-50bp - leaning slightly towards the former.
  • This also eclipsed our expectation for +50bp, resulting in more bullish pressure on RUB into the weekend and this morning's session.
  • Sell-side analysts still see scope for an additional 25-100bp in hikes in the coming meetings, given Nabiullina's overtly hawkish guidance and the persistence of inflationary pressures.
  • This makes the next step largely contingent on the evolution of CPI data going into the next meeting.
  • The CBR showed its concern about the inflation trajectory by removing phrasing expecting a moderation in 4Q21, and statements from Nabiullina should be monitored closely in the coming weeks but the bank is unlikely to guide towards letting up any time soon in order to rein in lofty expectations.
  • Beyond Monpol, increased covid pressures and new lockdowns are a facto to consider, but have had little material impact on one-way bullish RUB positioning.
  • Next major support seen at 69.55, 69.15, 68.59, 68.03. Intraday Sup1: 69.8305, Sup2: 69.55, Res1: 70.2971, Res2: 70.8961
  • 3x6 FRA-Mosprime Spreads