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USD/RUB Sticky Above 77.50, But Escalating Tensions Risk Further Volatility

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB opens flat to lower as early dollar strength pulls back somewhat and gains in oil markets support moderate RUB strength.
  • Brent futures notched higher this morning as China's trade data surpassed expectations and March crude imports jumped 21% in signs of burgeoning demand.
  • Polls also suggest a possible draw on stockpiles later today in API inventory data.
  • USD/RUB remains sticky above the 77.50 handle for now, but with uncertainty still high and tensions over the Ukraine poised to escalate, RUB inflows are likely to remain tentative.
  • Sabre-rattling with the US and greater sanctions risk seems to be a more prominent threat at present than the possibility of direct military conflict in the Donbass, with little utility for either side and diplomatic means being pressed over military confrontation.
  • USD/RUB remains sensitive to headline risks and ad hoc developments in the Ukraine crisis, but should also be affected by US CPI this afternoon.
  • Intraday Sup1: 76.8484, Sup2: 76.4367, Res1: 77.5481, Res2: 78.00
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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