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EUROSTOXX50 TECHS

(Z1) Remains Vulnerable

BTP TECHS

(Z1) Holding Above Last Week’s Low

GILT TECHS

(H2) Price Structure Remains Bullish

SCHATZ TECHS

(Z1) Pullback Considered Corrective

BOBL TECHS

(Z1) Needle Points North

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  • USD/RUB stands +0.50% higher this morning, with early weakness in oil markets tempering the recent RUB rally.
  • The cross fell -0.29% in yesterday's session, falling just short of 69.20 before retracing closer to 69.50.
  • Brent is off -1.01% this morning on the back of a larger than expected API inventories build in yesterday's session, rising by +2.3m bbls vs 1.9m exp.
  • This has been complimented by tentative profit taking across the oil complex, despite GS forecasts for a run up to $90.
  • The focus today turns to industrial production data, expected to moderate slightly to 4.6% and, more importantly, weekly CPI.
  • 3x6 FRA-Mosprime spreads have pulled back from Monday's highs of +133bp to settle closer to +87bp - implying split expectations for roughly 50-100bp in hikes in the coming months as the CBR grapples with runaway inflation.
  • Weekly CPI today will be a key gauge of the presentence of pricing pressures, with another large upside print likely bolstering hawkish calls from the market in the next meeting.
  • RUB sentiment remains bullish with USD/RUB -1.92% lower since Monday.
  • Intraday Sup1: 69.4455, Sup2: 69.2213, Res1: 69.888, Res2: 70.0975