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(Z1) Remains Vulnerable


(Z1) Holding Above Last Week’s Low


(H2) Price Structure Remains Bullish


(Z1) Pullback Considered Corrective


(Z1) Needle Points North

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  • USD/RUB stands +0.50% higher this morning, with early weakness in oil markets tempering the recent RUB rally.
  • The cross fell -0.29% in yesterday's session, falling just short of 69.20 before retracing closer to 69.50.
  • Brent is off -1.01% this morning on the back of a larger than expected API inventories build in yesterday's session, rising by +2.3m bbls vs 1.9m exp.
  • This has been complimented by tentative profit taking across the oil complex, despite GS forecasts for a run up to $90.
  • The focus today turns to industrial production data, expected to moderate slightly to 4.6% and, more importantly, weekly CPI.
  • 3x6 FRA-Mosprime spreads have pulled back from Monday's highs of +133bp to settle closer to +87bp - implying split expectations for roughly 50-100bp in hikes in the coming months as the CBR grapples with runaway inflation.
  • Weekly CPI today will be a key gauge of the presentence of pricing pressures, with another large upside print likely bolstering hawkish calls from the market in the next meeting.
  • RUB sentiment remains bullish with USD/RUB -1.92% lower since Monday.
  • Intraday Sup1: 69.4455, Sup2: 69.2213, Res1: 69.888, Res2: 70.0975