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- USD/RUB stands +0.50% higher this morning, with early weakness in oil markets tempering the recent RUB rally.
- The cross fell -0.29% in yesterday's session, falling just short of 69.20 before retracing closer to 69.50.
- Brent is off -1.01% this morning on the back of a larger than expected API inventories build in yesterday's session, rising by +2.3m bbls vs 1.9m exp.
- This has been complimented by tentative profit taking across the oil complex, despite GS forecasts for a run up to $90.
- The focus today turns to industrial production data, expected to moderate slightly to 4.6% and, more importantly, weekly CPI.
- 3x6 FRA-Mosprime spreads have pulled back from Monday's highs of +133bp to settle closer to +87bp - implying split expectations for roughly 50-100bp in hikes in the coming months as the CBR grapples with runaway inflation.
- Weekly CPI today will be a key gauge of the presentence of pricing pressures, with another large upside print likely bolstering hawkish calls from the market in the next meeting.
- RUB sentiment remains bullish with USD/RUB -1.92% lower since Monday.
- Intraday Sup1: 69.4455, Sup2: 69.2213, Res1: 69.888, Res2: 70.0975