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USD/RUB Tests 76.00 as Talks Show Signs of Breaking Down

RUSSIA
  • Geopolitical risks are on the rise again today following signs of increased frustration coming from Russia as a result of yesterday’s disappointing meetings with Liz Truss and the Normandy group RE the Minsk agreements.
  • This has broadly overshadowed a notably hawkish meeting from the CBR with Russia’s 5y CDS up +30bp today alongside a -1.46% weaker RUB. Talks have been relatively calm for the past two weeks, allowing the RUB to appreciate, but now seem closer to breaking down over the current impasse than improving.
  • Russia’s current frustration is also notably more concerning due to the ongoing military drills in Belarus with its sufficient military capacity deployed to take Kiev should Putin give the order.
  • Putin has said that a response to the West’s proposals is coming soon, but all indications suggest this may not be positive, given the many comments from various officials alluding to the West ignoring its concern.
  • Nevertheless, Ukraine and Russia have been downplaying the chances of conflict with Putin reiterating promises to return troops to Russia after 20 Feb. But until then the situation will remain tense.
  • USD/RUB had corrected roughly 7% from the peak at 80.4115, and may also be seeing some profit-taking.
  • Focus will be on the West’s discussions this afternoon and whether Russia wishes to come back to the negotiating table or not.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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