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USD/RUB Treads Water Amid Risk-Off And Escalating EU-Belarus Tensions

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades -0.21% lower this morning, tracking early price action in the BBDXY as it continues to push higher following US CPI that sent reverberations through EMFX yesterday.
  • The cross rose +0.65% yesterday, aided by a sharp turnaround in oil markets with Brent forming a large bearish engulfing candle on the daily char.
  • Traders are now also anticipating that Biden may tap the SPR to offset energy price risks to inflation.
  • Meanwhile, the Belarus-Poland situation escalated notably yesterday with Russia flying bombers over Belarus and the EU calling on Russia to influence Belarus.
  • Russia's warplane response was somewhat unexpected, as it shows a little more force than necessary and a stronger will to back Belarus than in recent months – and may reflect Russian interests in destabilising the EU on both the gas and military fronts.
  • While we don't see the crisis escalating too severely at this stage, it will need to be monitored over the next few weeks for signs of a greater proxy EU-Russia scuffle.
  • USD/RUB should continue to trade in line with global risk sentiment today with RUB still being among the most resilient EM currencies.
  • Intraday Sup1: 70.757, Sup2: 70.516, Res2: 71.3197, Res2: 71.557
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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