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USD Softer to Kick Off Fed Week

FOREX
  • The greenback is the poorest performing currency in early G10 trade Monday, with markets happy to keep the dollar weaker ahead of the FOMC decision Wednesday and the core expectation of an unchanged 'skip' meeting from the Fed.
  • The USD Index is within range of last week's lows but is yet to make any material test on the first key support undercutting at the 103.01 100-dma. Weakness through here would open 102.74 - the 50% retracement for the April - May upleg as well as the 102.54 50-dma.
  • SEK is the strongest performer in G10, helping USD/SEK fade off last week's best levels of 10.9459 to make some progress through the sharp late May rally in the pair. Swedish CPI takes focus later in the week, with May inflation crossing on Wednesday.
  • The positive equity backdrop is helping provide some support for risk proxies, putting the likes of AUD and NZD toward the top-end of the table. The e-mini S&P sits just below Friday's highs and a dose of risk-on would put the index at the best level since August last year.
  • Typically for a Monday, there are no key data releases to watch, with the speaker slate similarly quiet. An appearance from the BoE MPC's most hawkish member - Catherine Mann - is set for 1500BST/1000ET, however the Chatham House Rules applying to the event may mean little in the way of major headlines.
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