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Watching US Data Outcomes

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Whilst much of the focus overnight was on the FOMC decision and the subsequent press conference, we did see further disappointing data outcomes in the US relative to market expectations.

  • Specifically, the US empire manufacturing stayed negate at -1.2 versus 2.3 expected. It was an improvement though on the previous reading of -11.6. Retail sales data also disappointed.
  • Tonight, we have further data outcomes, most notably the US Philly Fed print. The market expects an improvement to 5.0 from 2.6.
  • The Citi US Economic Activity Surprise Index (EASI) remains at fairly depressed levels though, see the first chart below. The other line on the chart is the Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcaster, which edged into negative territory with the latest update.

Fig 1: Citi US EASI & Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcaster

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Whilst much of the focus overnight was on the FOMC decision and the subsequent press conference, we did see further disappointing data outcomes in the US relative to market expectations.

  • Specifically, the US empire manufacturing stayed negate at -1.2 versus 2.3 expected. It was an improvement though on the previous reading of -11.6. Retail sales data also disappointed.
  • Tonight, we have further data outcomes, most notably the US Philly Fed print. The market expects an improvement to 5.0 from 2.6.
  • The Citi US Economic Activity Surprise Index (EASI) remains at fairly depressed levels though, see the first chart below. The other line on the chart is the Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcaster, which edged into negative territory with the latest update.

Fig 1: Citi US EASI & Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcaster

Keep reading...Show less