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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
THB
USD/THB has continued to recover in the first part of trading. The pair back to 33.90/95, +0.55% on yesterday's closing levels (33.725). This is line with broader USD/Asia gains and higher beta FX struggling in terms of the majors. There may be some resistance at the 34.00 round figure level, while the simple 50-day MA is not too far away at 34.095. Yesterday's early print of 33.57 was a fresh low going back to early Feb of this year.
- Sunday will see Thai election, although a clear winner may not be immediately clear after the result. The two front runners, the populist Pheu Thai and progressive Move Forward parties, will likely face opposition in the Senate in terms of forming government, with the Senate likely to side with the military.
- The current head of the military has stated a coup though is not on the agenda (see this link).
- In terms of USD/THB, 1 month implied volatility sits a touch above recent lows, see the chart below. The market may not be expecting much financial market volatility, although BoT has the means to curb excessive moves for THB.
- Local equities are comfortably off recent lows, albeit down modestly today, the SET last at 1565 (-0.25%). Portfolio flows are negative this week for equities -$71.9mn, but the positive trend for bond inflows continues, +$1276.1mn.
Fig 1: USD/THB 1 Month Implied Volatility
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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