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USD/THB To Fresh YTD highs, BoT Seen On Hold Tomorrow By The Consensus

THB

USD/THB has been tracking higher in the first part of trade today. The pair is last near 36.37, which is fresh highs for the year, albeit at the margin. This is 0.65% weaker in baht terms versus closing levels from yesterday. The November 9 low from last year at 36.68 looms as the next upside target. On the downside, the 20-day EMA sits back near 35.75.

  • Part of this weakness reflects fresh highs in the broader USD index, BBDXY to fresh YTD highs, post yesterday's onshore spot close.
  • On the data front, we have August customs trade data coming up shortly. The market expects export growth at -5.0% y/y, (prior -6.23%), while imports are forecast at -10.0%y/y (prior -11.05%). The trade position is forecast at deficit of -$1761mn, a slight improvement on July's -$1978mn.
  • The consensus for tomorrow's BoT decision has shifted back to no change at 2.25%, as more survey respondents were compiled by Bloomberg. It is going to be a close call though.
  • Portfolio outflows continue. Yesterday saw -$73.6mn in equity outflows and -$149.5mn in bond outflows.
  • Thailand stocks slumped -1.0% yesterday, back towards recent lows.
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