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FOREX: USD Ticks Lower, NZD Outperforms, Limited Spillover From Bitcoin Surge

FOREX

G10 currencies are up against the USD, albeit modestly. The USD BBDXY index is little changed though, just under 1280.5. 

  • Bitcoin has surged through $100k, last up over 5%, but this hasn't spilled over much elsewhere in terms of USD trends. The surge in Bitcoin follows Trump's pro-crypto pick to head up the SEC (see this BBG link).
  • NZD/USD is up around 0.30%, outperforming AUD. NZD/USD was last near 0.5865/70, close to session highs. Local onshore yields are ticking up, despite softer volume of building work data for Q3. We had a debt sale earlier for local bonds (NZ$500mn), which may be helping sentiment in the FX space at the margins. Offshore ownership of local bonds has been climbing in recent months (last 62%, Nov data due Dec 17).
  • The AUD/NZD cross is at fresh lows back to early Oct, last near 1.0960/65. The 200- day EMA and MA's are both near 1.0940 in terms of downside targets. AUD/USD is relatively steady at 0.6430/35, with better than expected household spending data not providing a positive impact.
  • USD/JPY saw highs of 150.78, but sits back at 150.35/40 now, around 0.15% stronger in yen terms. We heard from BoJ board member Nakamura, who had dovish remarks and cautioned around adjusting policy rates. Still, Nakamura is a known dove, so the remarks didn't have a lasting impact on yen sentiment.
  • In the cross asset space, US yields have ticked up, but only reversing a small part of Wednesday's fall. Fed remarks from Daly suggested no urgency to lower rates.
  • Looking ahead, the Fed’s Barkin speaks and US November Challenger job cuts, October trade and jobless claims print. Canadian November PMI, German October factory orders and euro area retail sales are also released. BoE’s Greene speaks.
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G10 currencies are up against the USD, albeit modestly. The USD BBDXY index is little changed though, just under 1280.5. 

  • Bitcoin has surged through $100k, last up over 5%, but this hasn't spilled over much elsewhere in terms of USD trends. The surge in Bitcoin follows Trump's pro-crypto pick to head up the SEC (see this BBG link).
  • NZD/USD is up around 0.30%, outperforming AUD. NZD/USD was last near 0.5865/70, close to session highs. Local onshore yields are ticking up, despite softer volume of building work data for Q3. We had a debt sale earlier for local bonds (NZ$500mn), which may be helping sentiment in the FX space at the margins. Offshore ownership of local bonds has been climbing in recent months (last 62%, Nov data due Dec 17).
  • The AUD/NZD cross is at fresh lows back to early Oct, last near 1.0960/65. The 200- day EMA and MA's are both near 1.0940 in terms of downside targets. AUD/USD is relatively steady at 0.6430/35, with better than expected household spending data not providing a positive impact.
  • USD/JPY saw highs of 150.78, but sits back at 150.35/40 now, around 0.15% stronger in yen terms. We heard from BoJ board member Nakamura, who had dovish remarks and cautioned around adjusting policy rates. Still, Nakamura is a known dove, so the remarks didn't have a lasting impact on yen sentiment.
  • In the cross asset space, US yields have ticked up, but only reversing a small part of Wednesday's fall. Fed remarks from Daly suggested no urgency to lower rates.
  • Looking ahead, the Fed’s Barkin speaks and US November Challenger job cuts, October trade and jobless claims print. Canadian November PMI, German October factory orders and euro area retail sales are also released. BoE’s Greene speaks.