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USD/TRY Bounces at the Open, Maximalist Erdogan Brings Forward Sanctions Risks

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY opens sharply higher this morning, playing catch-up after an extended Eid holiday period.
  • The cross traded within a well-contained range last week, but may look to press higher this week in line with its EM peers as expectations for USD strength into the FOMC and Jackson Hole meeting increase.
  • Tensions on Cyprus have seemingly increased with the Greek Cypriot administration making the first sanctions threats over the re-opening of parts of Varosha.
  • This follows calls from the UNSC to reverse the re-opening late on Friday and a notable uptick in tensions surrounding the island.
  • A hardline response from Erdogan on this is likely to bring forward concerns of sanctions risks from the West in the coming weeks, with Erdogan seemingly seeking a move back to maximalist policy in the region after a few months of relative calm.
  • Price action is now hovering above the 50dma, but will need to close above there at 8.6064 resistance to signal potential for further upside this week.
  • Intraday Sup1: 8.5419, Sup2: 8.5042, Res1: 8.6064, Res2: 8.6399
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Markets NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Markets NewsHomepage

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