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- USD/TRY trades +2.56% higher this morning, diverging from the broad USD weakness trend. The cross failed to move below 12.00 ahead of the weekend and remains biased higher going into a week filled with key local and international data.
- GDP, CPI & PPI data are among the big-ticket items locally, with inflation set to tick up above 20% but not fully reflect the impact of TRY weakness until December.
- Sell side analysts note that although uncertainty is high RE the path of inflation, numbers could move towards 22-25% in December and even higher into 1Q22.
- On the political front, early election pressures are building from the opposition benches as they continue to press for protest action despite police raids on MPs houses and threats of prosecutions for opposing the current economic stance.
- On the international front, markets will be watching progress on the Omicron variant, alongside US ISM & NFP data this week.
- Global risk sentiment remains tentative following the discovery that saw markets push back rate hike expectations in the US in Friday's risk-off session.
- We can likely expect more choppiness in EMFX this week. Intraday Sup1: 12.3428, Sup2: 12.0716, Res1: 12.9204, Res2: 13.1308, Res3: 13.4539