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USD/TRY Gets Choppy Within its Lateral Range, Maintains Upside Bias

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades -0.12% lower this morning, still caught within the 9.4868-9.6249 range.
  • The cross made a large round trip in yesterday's session following further remarks from CBRT governor Kavcioglu pointing to 'transitory' price pressures and claims that rate cuts had little to do with recent TRY weakness – which were echoed later in the minutes.
  • These sorts of comments reflect a central bank reaction function that has little do with underlying economic conditions, and should continue to fail to inspire investor confidence.
  • Nevertheless, USD/TRY pared the initial move on an improvement in global risk sentiment and firmer US equities – bringing price action back towards 9.50.
  • Comments from Sullivan overnight seem to point to a potential Biden-Erdogan meeting in Glasgow, but the official trip guidance document shows nothing as of yet.
  • Whether a meeting takes place or not will be an interesting barometer of US-Turkey relations following the envoy spat and could either soothe or exacerbate frictions in the near-term.
  • For now, the cross is caught in the aforementioned range, but will likely still see fading pressure on TRY strength with sentiment at an all-time low.
  • Intraday Sup1: 9.4867, Sup2: 9.4252, Res1: 9.6249, Res2: 9.7121
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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