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USD/TRY Hovers Above 8.00 As New Gov Kavcioglu Delivers His Frist CBRT Decision

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY opens flat to marginally higher, continuing its measured drift lower into today's CBRT.
  • With limited other options available amid political pressure to cut and rising CPI our base case remains a hold at this meeting with risks to a cut.
  • A market stabiliser meeting with a hold should bolster TRY stability in the near-term, drawing the cross towards the 8.00-8.8614 zone.
  • However, firm support and deteriorating virus & inflation conditions, widening current acc deficit and expectations for the initiation of an eventual easing cycle should dampen Excessive TRY optimism.
  • Although unexpected, A cut against consensus and new Gov Kavcioglu's recent guidance would be the nuclear option for TRY, likely forcing USD/TRY to new highs around 9.50-10.00 – however, the CBRT will likely be cognisant of these risks.
  • Intraday Sup1: 8.0236, Sup2: 7.8614, Sup3: 7.7491, Res1: 8.1135, Res2: 8.2046, Res3: 8.3977
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News

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