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USD/TRY Hovers Below 15.00 as CBRT Meeting Approaches
- USD/TRY trades +0.34% higher this morning, mirroring early price action in the BBDXY. TRY came under pressure last week as the impact of the Ukraine crisis continued to drive the currency weaker for a -3.98% loss vs the greenback.
- Price action pulled back sharply from the 15.00 handle, but markets continue to favour fading bouts of TRY strength given the CBRT’s unwillingness to hike, despite major inflation risks.
- The CBRT meeting this week is expected to be mostly similar to the prior meeting with rates being left on hold at 14.00%.
- Meanwhile, Erdogan continues to look to improve regional relations with middle eastern peers and Europe with Borrell highlighting Turkey’s importance within NATO over the weekend.
- This week’s Fed meeting is also expected to signal the first +25bp hike in its hiking cycle – adding difficulties for Turkey, given its high external debt load.
- Focus in USD/TRY is on 15.00 for now and how vigorously the CBRT/state banks decide to defend the level.
- Intraday Sup1: 13.7634, Sup2: 13.6462, Res1: 13.9265, Res2: 14.9925
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.