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USD/TRY Rejects 8.80 as TRY-Positive Catalysts Enter the Mix

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY opens slightly higher as some early upside in the BBDXY filters through into this morning's price action.
  • The cross rejected the 8.80 handle in yesterday's session, closing -1.39% lower on the day – supported by broad TRY optimism over US cooperation in Afghanistan, the rolling back of restrictions in July and positive CBRT talks with the banking association RE FX swap agreements and RR tweaks.
  • Measures to shore up Turkey's precarious reserve position and boost CBRT credibility through RR changes are a positive step from Kavcioglu who is seeing diminishing marginal returns to his current holding stance on rates against political pressure to cut from Erdogan.
  • Progress in this regard will be monitored closely for the size of various deals and overall impact on its domestic reserve position.
  • Additionally, greater participation from the EU on the migrant deal is a net positive for Turkey-EU relations and may unlock EUR3bn or more in funding when the matter is discussed on Thursday.
  • Intraday Sup1: 8.6399, Sup2: 8.5808, Res1: 8.6927, Res2: 8.7488
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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