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USD/TWD At 2023 Highs, Q3 Equity Outflows Largest Since Q2 2022

TWD

Spot USD/TWD finished yesterday above 32.23. This is fresh highs back to early Nov 2022. Highs from late October around 32.35 beckon as the next upside target. The 20-day EMA continues to track higher, last just above 32.00. The 1 month NDF finished Tuesday trade at 32.20.

  • Overnight equity weakness, particularly in the tech space (SOX off -1.77%) may weigh further on local equity market sentiment today. The Taiex at yesterday's close was 16276, not too far off multi month lows.
  • Offshore investors sold -$811.9mn of local equities yesterday. This brings September outflows to -$5482.5mn, while for Q3 as whole we have seen just over $13bn in offshore outflows. This is the strongest quarterly pace of outflows since Q2 last year, see the chart below.
  • The higher for longer Fed theme, China weakness, uncertainty around the global external demand outlook, all appear to be weighing.
  • On the data front later today, the NDC monitoring indicator prints for August. The July outcome was15, which is well below historical averages (and describes growth as sluggish).

Fig 1: Taiwan Quarterly Equity Flows - USDmn

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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