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USD Weakness, OPEC Support Remain Key WTI Drivers

OIL

WTI crude futures remain at the upper end of the recent range, with yesterday's high at $39.25 within sight. Resounding USD weakness and the continued newsflow supportive of an extension to OPEC oil output cuts are the key drivers - with the crude futures curve flattening markedly as contracts out to end-2022 rally over $2.50/bbl over the past week or so.

Markets watch for the new WH administration's energy policy, particularly any softening of tensions with Iran, which could see Iranian supply re-tapped in 2021.


  • Oil implied vols have eased off the pre-election high, but still remain elevated over the rolling 3m average. While lockdown pressure across Western Europe remains a bearish factor, but yesterday's sharply lower than expected DoE inventories (draw of 8mln barrels) appears to have countered.
  • Tech resistance beyond the week's highs rest at the 50-day EMA of $39.83, with Oct22 high of $41.02 above.
Energy BulletsCommodities
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