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Gold Inching Toward Bull Trigger

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  • USD/ZAR opens lower this morning, pulling away from 14.40 as early USD buying fades somewhat.
  • ZAR depreciated 4.53% vs the USD last week as rising US Treasury yields and a deteriorating domestic covid situation forced a more substantial correction in USD/ZAR.
  • Focus this week will be on CPI data – expected to tick up to 5-5.2% y/y, and local political/factional risks within the ANC as suspended SG Magashule faces off with the party in court.
  • On the CPI front, while this print is moving above the midpoint of the SARB's 3-6% range, this should not change the SARB's accommodative stance as price pressures are expected to moderate into year-end with the bank focused on the medium-term factors over near-term transitory ones.
  • Price action fell short of the 100dma this morning at 14.4351, having made a notable correction since 07 June low at 14.40.
  • Major resistance seen at 14.5159 this week.
  • Intraday Sup1: 14.1421, Sup2: 14.0768, Res1: 14.3992, Res2: 14.5198