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USDBRL Approaches Notable Downside Levels, IPCA Inflation Tuesday

BRAZIL
  • USDBRL remains in a technical downtrend and strength for higher beta currencies on Monday may bolster the Real further at the open. Spot rate has been hovering above notable support at 4.7490, the Jun 6 2022 low, of which a break would initially open 4.6910, the May 30 2022 low.
  • Markets will receive the latest central bank Focus survey of expectations on Tuesday this week, shortly followed by the mid-July IPCA inflation data. Headline inflation is expected to increase marginally from June’s reading of 3.16% to 3.26% Y/y. Any surprise below this surveyed median estimate would likely bolster the calls for a 50-bp rate cut at the BCB’s August 02 meeting.
  • In case of any headlines hitting the wires, it is worth noting that BCB Governor Roberto Campos Neto has returned from a vacation and has meetings in Sao Paulo.
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